Short Time frame System

Hello traders,

I have started trading since March. March is good with high return but opening of April I made 2 losing trade. Though not as bad atm still recovering from the 2 loss trade.

I was looking around forum and I came across a short time frame system that is very good. For those of you who is still looking for a way to trade, instead of developing your own system which is time consuming not to mention money why not just take a good system.

The system I am talking about is THV system v4. It is designed to be a short time frame system and is rather accurate. As always, if you are really into trading you must have rules. Forex is actually a game of discipline. My suggestion, google it, download the system, understand the rules and practice trade it on demo account. Trade longer time frame like 1H or 4H.

Apart from the rules of the system, my ultimate rules is = buy when the price is going up and sell when the price is going down. How to figure that out, you will understand it sooner or later.

I can only show you the door, you have to walk through it.

The Three Phases of a Trader's Education

Team - 

 You know how big I am on education.  Please read the following article from my partners at EWI for some tops on becoming a successful trader through education.

Enjoy!!

 

The Three Phases of a Trader's Education
Learn Jeffrey Kennedy's tips for becoming a consistently successful trader
March 12, 2012

By Elliott Wave International

You've probably heard talk about "market uncertainty" in the financial news recently. But when are the market trends ever certain? The constant uncertainties contribute to your frustrations as a trader, and you need to have a method for dealing with the ups and downs. Every successful trader has one.

Since 1999, Elliott Wave International's senior analyst and trading instructor Jeffrey Kennedy has produced hundreds of trading lessons exclusively for his subscribers. One of these lessons, "The Three Phases of a Trader's Education," gives you Jeffrey's tips on becoming a consistently successful trader.

Here it is; we hope you'll find it helpful.

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The Three Phases of a Trader's Education:
Psychology, Money Management, Method

Aspiring traders typically go through three phases in this order:

1. Methodology -- The first phase is that all-too-familiar quest for the Holy Grail -- a trading system that never fails. After spending thousands of dollars on books, seminars and trading systems, the aspiring trader eventually realizes that no such system exists.
2. Money Management -- So, after getting frustrated with wasting time and money, the up-and-coming trader begins to understand the need for money management, risking only a small percentage of a portfolio on a given trade versus too large a bet.
3. Psychology -- The third phase is realizing how important psychology is -- not only personal psychology but also the psychology of crowds.

But it would be better to go through these phases in the opposite direction. I actually read of this idea in a magazine a few months ago but, for the life of me, can't find the article. Even so, with a measly 15 years of experience under my belt and an expensive Ph.D. from S.H.K. University (i.e., School of Hard Knocks), I wholeheartedly agree. Aspiring traders should begin their journey at phase three and work backward.

I believe the first step in becoming a consistently successful trader is to understand how psychology plays out in your own make-up and in the way the crowd reacts to changes in the markets. The reason for this is that a trader must realize that once he or she makes a trade, logic no longer applies. This is because the emotions of fear and greed take precedence -- fear of losing money and greed for more money.
Once the aspiring trader understands this psychology, it's easier to understand why it's important to have a defined investment methodology and, more importantly, the discipline to follow it. New traders must realize that once they join a crowd, they lose their individuality. Worse yet, crowd psychology impairs their judgment, because crowds are wrong more often than not, typically selling at market bottoms and buying at market tops.

Moving onto phase two, after the aspiring trader understands a bit of psychology, he or she can focus on money management. Money management is an important subject and deserves much more than just a few sentences. Even so, there are two issues that I believe are critical to grasp: (1) risk in terms of individual trades and (2) risk as a percentage of account size.

When sizing up a trading opportunity, the rule-of-thumb I go by is 3:1. That is, if my risk on a given trading opportunity is $500, then the profit objective for that trade should equal $1,500, or more. With regard to risk as a percentage of account size, I'm more than comfortable utilizing the same guidelines that many professional money managers use -- 1%-3% of the account per position. If your trading account is $100,000, then you should risk no more than $3,000 on a single position.

Following this guideline not only helps to contain losses if one's trade decision is incorrect, but it also insures longevity. It's one thing to have a winning quarter; the real trick is to have a winning quarter next year and the year after.

When aspiring traders grasp the importance of psychology and money management, they should then move to phase three -- determining their methodology, a defined and unwavering way of examining price action. I principally use the Wave Principle as my methodology. However, wave analysis certainly isn't the only way to view price action. One can choose candlestick charts, Dow Theory, cycles, etc. My best advice in this realm is that whatever you choose to use, it should be simple. In fact, it should be simple enough to put on the back of a business card, because, like an appliance, the fewer parts it has, the less likely it is to break down.

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14 Critical Lessons Every Trader Should Know Read more of Jeffrey Kennedy's lessons in his 45-page eBook, The Best of Trader's Classroom. Find out why traders fail and how to make yourself a better trader with lessons on the Wave Principle, bar patterns, Fibonacci sequences, and more when you download your FREE eBook today! Don't miss your chance to improve your trading. Download your free eBook here.

Which Method Can Traders Use to Confirm an Elliott Wave Count?

Which Method Can Traders Use to Confirm an Elliott Wave Count?
Jeffrey Kennedy has developed a theory that guides his analysis
March 8, 2012

By Elliott Wave International

When you are watching a pattern develop on a chart, how can you be sure that your wave count is correct? The Elliott Wave Principle offers rules and guidelines that you can use to add confidence to your wave count.

Elliott Wave International's Senior Analyst Jeffrey Kennedy spent years designing his own technique to improve his accuracy. He came up with the Jeffrey Kennedy Channeling Technique, which he uses to confirm his wave counts. The following excerpt from Jeffrey's Trader's Classroom lessons, a regular feature of his Futures Junctures Service, offers an overview of his method.

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My theory is simple: Five waves break down into three channels, and three waves need only one. The price movement in and out of these channels confirms each Elliott wave.

Base Channel

Figure 61 shows three separate five-wave patterns with three different channels drawn: the base channel, the acceleration channel and the deceleration channel.

 The base channel contains the origin of wave one, the end of wave two and the extreme of wave one (Figure 61A). Of the three channels, the base channel is most important, because it defines the trend. As long as prices stay within the base channel, we can safely consider the price action corrective. Over the years, I've discovered that most corrective wave patterns stay within one price channel (Figure 62). Only after prices have moved through the upper or lower boundary lines of this channel is an impulsive wave count suitable, which brings us to the acceleration channel.

Acceleration Channel

The acceleration channel encompasses wave three. Use the extreme of wave one, the most recent high and the bottom of wave two to draw this channel (Figure 61B). As wave three develops, you�ll need to redraw the acceleration channel to accommodate new highs.
Once prices break through the lower boundary line of the acceleration channel, we have confirmation that wave three is over and that wave four is unfolding. I have noticed that wave four will often end near the upper boundary line of the base channel or moderately within the parallel lines. If prices break through the lower boundary line of the base channel decisively, it means the trend is down, and you need to draw new channels.

Deceleration Channel

The deceleration channel contains wave four (Figure 61C). To draw the deceleration channel, simply connect the extremes of wave three and wave B with a trend line. Take a parallel of this line, and place it on the extreme of wave A. As I mentioned before, price action that stays within one price channel is often corrective. When prices break through the upper boundary line of this channel, you can expect a fifth-wave rally next.

In a nutshell, prices need to break out of the base channel to confirm the trend. Movement out of the acceleration channel confirms that wave four is in force, and penetration of the deceleration channel lines signals that wave five is under way.

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14 Critical Lessons Every Trader Should Know Since 1999, Jeffrey Kennedy has produced dozens of Trader's Classroom lessons exclusively for his subscribers. Now you can get "the best of the best" in these 14 lessons that offer the most critical information every trader should know. Find out why traders fail, the three phases of a trader's education, and how to make yourself a better trader with lessons on the Wave Principle, bar patterns, Fibonacci sequences, and more! Don't miss your chance to improve your trading. Download your FREE 45-page eBook today!

R.N. Elliott Discovered the Wave Principle Over 70 Years Ago

R.N. Elliott Discovered the Wave Principle Over 70 Years Ago
This is your opportunity to learn the method that has stood the test of time 
March 2, 2012

By Elliott Wave International

In the 1930s, Ralph N. Elliott discovered that stock market prices tend to move in recurring patterns. He defined these patterns (or "waves") and explained how they combine to create larger versions of themselves. He called his discovery the Wave Principle.

After much research into R.N. Elliott's work, A.J. Frost and Robert Prechter published the 1978 text Elliott Wave Principle. This lesson captures a flavor of Elliott's fascinating approach to market analysis.

The first step in Elliott wave analysis is identifying patterns in market prices. At their core, wave patterns are simple; there are only two of them: "motive waves," and "corrective waves." Motive waves are composed of five sub-waves and move in the same direction as the trend of the next larger size. A corrective wave follows, composed of three sub-waves, and it moves against the trend of the next larger size. As the picture below shows, these two patterns form similar structures of larger sizes, or "degrees," as R.N. Elliott, the discoverer of the Wave Principle, called them.

The above pattern begins with waves 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 that together form wave (1) -- a five-wave, motive structure that tells us that the trend at the next larger degree is also upward. If you were reading this in real-time, and the rest of the pattern was not visible, it would also warn you to watch for a three-wave correction.

Corrective wave (2) in the chart above is followed by waves (3), (4), and (5), to complete an impulsive sequence one degree larger labeled 1 (circled). This is followed by a three-wave correction of the same degree: wave 2 (circled) with subwaves (A)-(B)-(C). One way to think about corrective waves is that, because they move against the next larger trend, they lack the strength to unfold into a full five-wave move.

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Learn the Elliott Wave Principle -- Free If you're interested in learning Elliott wave analysis, but haven't yet gotten a copy of the book Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior, check out EWI's online edition. Even if you already have the book, the online edition is a handy way to look something up when you don't have your book nearby. Learn the method that successful investors have used for decades.

European Money Shuffle

Team - he's a link to a video with a very interesting explanation of the money shuffling going on in Europe.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V5z0rQRdsiE


Enjoy!!

A Two-Bar Pattern that Points to Trade Setups

A Two-Bar Pattern that Points to Trade Setups

February 15, 2012

By Elliott Wave International

Some people like to get outside on the weekends, maybe playing tennis or working in the yard. Some people like to visit their friends or cook a big meal or go out to see a movie. And some people who are passionate about their work -- such as Elliott Wave International's futures analyst Jeffrey Kennedy -- like to stare at hundreds of price charts on their computer screen to find patterns that point to trade setups. We used to worry for his health but not anymore, because he's been doing it for years and he comes up with some neat stuff. A case in point is his discovery of a two-bar pattern that he named the Popgun. Find out more in this excerpt from the Club EWI eBook, How to Use Bar Patterns to Spot Trade Setups.

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The Popgun
I'm no doubt dating myself, but when I was a kid, I had a popgun -- the old-fashioned kind with a cork and string (no fake Star Wars light saber for me). You pulled the trigger, and the cork popped out of the barrel attached to a string. If you were like me, you immediately attached a longer string to improve the popgun's reach. Why the reminiscing? Because "Popgun" is the name of a bar pattern I would like to share with you this month. And it's the path of the cork (out and back) that made me think of the name for this pattern.

The Popgun is a two-bar pattern composed of an outside bar preceded by an inside bar. (Quick refresher course: An outside bar occurs when the range of a bar encompasses the previous bar and an inside bar is a price bar whose range is encompassed by the previous bar.) In Chart 1 (Coffee), I have circled two Popguns.

So what's so special about the Popgun? It introduces swift, tradable moves in price. More importantly, once the moves end, they are significantly retraced, just like the popgun cork going out and back. As you can see in Chart 2 [not shown], prices advance sharply following the Popgun, and then the move is significantly retraced. In Chart 3 [not shown], we see the same thing again but to the downside: prices fall dramatically after the Popgun, and then a sizable correction develops. 

How can we incorporate this bar pattern into our Elliott wave analysis? The best way is to understand where Popguns show up in the wave patterns. I have noticed that Popguns tend to occur prior to impulse waves -- waves one, three and five. But, remember, waves A and C of corrective wave patterns are also technically impulse waves. So Popguns can occur prior to those moves as well. 

As with all my work, I rely on a pattern only if it applies across all time frames and markets. To illustrate, I have included two charts of Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI) that show this pattern works equally well on 60-minute and weekly charts. Notice that the Popgun on the 60-minute chart [not shown] preceded a small third wave advance. Now look at the weekly chart [not shown] to see what three Popguns introduced (from left to right), wave C of a flat correction, wave 5 of (3) and wave C of (4).

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Find out How to Use Bar Patterns to Spot Trade Setups In this comprehensive 15-page eBook, Jeffrey provides each pattern with a definition, illustrations of its form, lessons on its application and how to incorporate it into Elliott wave analysis, historical examples of its occurrence in major commodity markets, and ultimately -- compelling proof of how it identified swift and sizable moves. Download the free, 15-page eBook today >>

Learn How to Apply Fibonacci Retracements to Your Trading

Learn How to Apply Fibonacci Retracements to Your Trading
EWI's new eBook helps you identify trading opportunities 
February 8, 2012

By Elliott Wave International

Elliott waves often correct in terms of Fibonacci ratios. The following article, adapted from the eBook How You Can Use Fibonacci to Improve Your Trading, explains what you can expect when a market begins a corrective phase. Learn how you can read the entire 14-page eBook below.

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Retracements -- Corrective Waves

If we look on the left side of this chart, we see a diagram of wave 1 followed by wave 2. It is common for second waves to retrace .618 of wave 1 -- thereby making a deep retracement. We will also be looking for .786. We might often see .5, 50%, but .618 is common. On the right side, fourth waves will commonly retrace a smaller percentage or .382 of wave 3. We might also see something like .236.

Examples

I have put the wave count on this chart of the S&P 500. We have waves 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5. Wave 2 is an expanded flat. Wave 4 is a zigzag. Let's look at the retracements that waves 2 and 4 make.

We see that wave 2 makes a deep retracement. It comes close to .618. Look at this Fibonacci table that I put up; notice that I put .382, .5, .618, and .786. .618 is 1087.75, and the S&P low is 1090.19.

We see that wave 4 makes a shallow retracement of wave 3. It goes just beyond the .382 retracement. .382 is 1169.1, and wave 4 actually bottoms at 1163.75.

In a nutshell, this is what we mean when we say that Elliott waves often correct in terms of Fibonacci ratios.

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Learn How You Can Use Fibonacci to Improve Your Trading If you'd like to learn more about Fibonacci and how to apply it to your trading strategy, download the entire 14-page free eBook, How You Can Use Fibonacci to Improve Your Trading. EWI Senior Tutorial Instructor Wayne Gorman explains: The Golden Spiral, the Golden Ratio, and the Golden Section How to use Fibonacci Ratios/Multiples in forecasting How to identify market targets and turning points in the markets you trade And more! See how easy it is to use Fibonacci in your trading. Download your free eBook today >>

Credit Crisis: Are We Set Up for The Perfect Storm?

Technical Indicators: A Love-Hate Relationship
Part I: How One Technical Indicator Can Identify Three Trade Setups 
January 27, 2012

By Elliott Wave International

Trading using technical indicators -- such as the MACD, for example -- can do one of two things: help you or hurt you.

Elliott Wave International's Jeffrey Kennedy explains what he loves and hates about technical indicators and shows you how he uses them to his advantage in this excerpt from his FREE eBook, The Commodity Trader's Classroom.

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I love a good love-hate relationship, and that's what I've got with technical indicators. Technical indicators are those fancy computerized studies that you frequently see at the bottom of price charts that are supposed to tell you what the market is going to do next (as if they really could). The most common studies include MACD, Stochastics, RSI, and ADX, just to name a few.

The No. 1 (and Only) Reason to Hate Technical Indicators

I often hate technical studies because they divert my attention from what's most important - PRICE.

Have you ever been to a magic show? Isn't amazing how magicians pull rabbits out of hats and make all those things disappear? Of course, the "amazing" is only possible because you're looking at one hand when you should be watching the other. Magicians succeed at performing their tricks to the extent that they succeed at diverting your attention.

That's why I hate technical indicators; they divert my attention the same way magicians do. Nevertheless, I have found a way to live with them, and I do use them. Here's how: Rather than using technical indicators as a means to gauge momentum or pick tops and bottoms, I use them to identify potential trade setups.

Three Reasons to Learn to Love Technical Indicators
Out of the hundreds of technical indicators I have worked with over the years, my favorite study is MACD (an acronym for Moving Average Convergence-Divergence). MACD, which was developed by Gerald Appel, uses two exponential moving averages (12-period and 26-period). The difference between these two moving averages is the MACD line. The trigger or Signal line is a 9-period exponential moving average of the MACD line (usually seen as 12/26/9�so don't misinterpret it as a date). Even though the standard settings for MACD are 12/26/9, I like to use 12/25/9 (it's just me being different). An example for MACD is shown in Figure 10-1 (Coffee).

The simplest trading rule for MACD is to buy when the MACD line (the thin line) crosses above the Signal line (the thick line), and sell when the MACD line crosses below the Signal line. Some charting systems (like Genesis or CQG) may refer to the MACD line as MACD and the Signal line as MACDA. Figure 10-2 (Coffee) highlights the buy-and-sell signals generated from this very basic interpretation.

Although many people use MACD this way, I choose not to, primarily because MACD is a trend-following or momentum indicator. An indicator that follows trends in a sideways market (which some say is the state of markets 80% of the time) will get you killed. For that reason, I like to focus on different information that I've observed and named: Hooks, Slingshots and Zero-Line Reversals. Once I explain these, you'll understand why I've learned to love technical indicators.

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Keep reading about Hooks, Slingshots, and Zero Line Reversals in The Commodity Trader's Classroom. This free eBook is filled with 32 pages of actionable trading lessons, such as: How to Make Yourself a Better Trader How the Wave Principle Can Improve Your Trading When to Place a Trade How to Identify and Use Support and Resistance Levels How to Apply Fibonacci Math to Real-World Trading How to Integrate Technical Analysis into an Elliott Wave Forecast Download your FREE Commodity Trader's Classroom eBook today!

Learn to Find Trading Opportunities Using Fibonacci

Elliott Wave International has just released a free 14-Page eBook, How You Can Use Fibonacci to Improve Your Trading. Created from a $129 two-volume set, it’s available free until February 6. Learn more here.
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You may be missing trading opportunities that are staring you in the face. The charts you look at every day could reveal high-confidence trade setups and market turning points, and you can learn how to find them, today.


Elliott Wave International (EWI) has just released a free eBook, How You Can Use Fibonacci to Improve Your Trading.


It features 14 chart-filled pages that explain Fibonacci and provide practical tools to help you formulate and execute your own trading strategy by combining wave analysis with Fibonacci relationships. You’ll never look at charts the same way again!


Created from a $129 two-volume eBook by EWI, this valuable report is offered free until February 6.


Don’t miss out on this opportunity to learn how Fibonacci can change the way you trade forever.


Download your free eBook now.

(Video) Bob Prechter Explains 'Triple Top' Forming in U.S. Stock Market

(Video) Bob Prechter Explains 'Triple Top' Forming in U.S. Stock Market

This excerpt from the special video issue of the August Elliott Wave Theorist brings you Bob Prechter’s analysis of the triple top that has been forming in the U.S. stock market over the past 12 years. Watch as Bob himself explains what this pattern means for you and the markets.

You can get even more analysis – including an 84-year study of stock values – that will help you gain perspective about the recent market moves with Elliott Wave International’s FREE report, “Reality Check: Studying the Past to Bring Clarity to the Future.”

You’ll get a glimpse into the in-depth analysis Robert Prechter presents each month in his Elliott Wave Theorist with 3 excerpts from his most recent issues.

Don’t let extreme market volatility leave you confused and scared. Prepare yourself for today’s critical market juncture with your FREE report from Robert Prechter.

Read Bob Prechter's FREE report "Reality Check: Studying the Past to Bring Clarity to the Future."

Five Fatal Flaws of Trading

Five Fatal Flaws of Trading

January 13, 2012

By Elliott Wave International

Close to ninety percent of all traders lose money. The remaining ten percent somehow manage to either break even or even turn a profit -- and more importantly, do it consistently. How do they do that?

That's an age-old question. While there is no magic formula, EWI Senior Instructor Jeffrey Kennedy has identified five fundamental flaws that, in his opinion, stop most traders from being consistently successful. We don't claim to have found The Holy Grail of trading here, but sometimes a single idea can change a person's life. Maybe you'll find one in Jeffrey's take on trading. We sincerely hope so.

The following is an excerpt from Jeffrey Kennedy's Trader's Classroom Collection, Volume 4. Learn how to get 14 more actionable trading lessons -- FREE -- below.

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Why Do Traders Lose?

If you've been trading for a long time, you no doubt have felt that a monstrous, invisible hand sometimes reaches into your trading account and takes out money. It doesn't seem to matter how many books you buy, how many seminars you attend or how many hours you spend analyzing price charts, you just can't seem to prevent that invisible hand from depleting your trading account funds.

Which brings us to the question: Why do traders lose? Or maybe we should ask, "How do you stop the Hand?" Whether you are a seasoned professional or just thinking about opening your first trading account, the ability to stop the Hand is proportional to how well you understand and overcome the Five Fatal Flaws of trading. For each fatal flaw represents a finger on the invisible hand that wreaks havoc with your trading account.

Fatal Flaw No. 1 -- Lack of Methodology

If you aim to be a consistently successful trader, then you must have a defined trading methodology, which is simply a clear and concise way of looking at markets. Guessing or going by gut instinct won't work over the long run. If you don't have a defined trading methodology, then you don't have a way to know what constitutes a buy or sell signal. Moreover, you can't even consistently correctly identify the trend.

How to overcome this fatal flaw? Answer: Write down your methodology. Define in writing what your analytical tools are and, more importantly, how you use them. It doesn't matter whether you use the Wave Principle, Point and Figure charts, Stochastics, RSI or a combination of all of the above. What does matter is that you actually take the effort to define it (i.e., what constitutes a buy, a sell, your trailing stop and instructions on exiting a position). And the best hint I can give you regarding developing a defined trading methodology is this: If you can't fit it on the back of a business card, it's probably too complicated.

Fatal Flaw No. 2 -- Lack of Discipline

When you have clearly outlined and identified your trading methodology, then you must have the discipline to follow your system. A Lack of Discipline in this regard is the second fatal flaw. If the way you view a price chart or evaluate a potential trade setup is different from how you did it a month ago, then you have either not identified your methodology or you lack the discipline to follow the methodology you have identified. The formula for success is to consistently apply a proven methodology. So the best advice I can give you to overcome a lack of discipline is to define a trading methodology that works best for you and follow it religiously.

Fatal Flaw No. 3 -- Unrealistic Expectations

Between you and me, nothing makes me angrier than those commercials that say something like, "...$5,000 properly positioned in Natural Gas can give you returns of over $40,000..." Advertisements like this are a disservice to the financial industry as a whole and end up costing uneducated investors a lot more than $5,000. In addition, they help to create the third fatal flaw: Unrealistic Expectations.

Yes, it is possible to experience above-average returns trading your own account. However, it's difficult to do it without taking on above-average risk. So what is a realistic return to shoot for in your first year as a trader -- 50%, 100%, 200%? Whoa, let's rein in those unrealistic expectations. In my opinion, the goal for every trader their first year out should be not to lose money. In other words, shoot for a 0% return your first year. If you can manage that, then in year two, try to beat the Dow or the S&P. These goals may not be flashy but they are realistic, and if you can learn to live with them -- and achieve them -- you will fend off the Hand.

Fatal Flaw No. 4 -- Lack of Patience

The fourth finger of the invisible hand that robs your trading account is Lack of Patience. I forget where, but I once read that markets trend only 20% of the time, and, from my experience, I would say that this is an accurate statement. So think about it, the other 80% of the time the markets are not trending in one clear direction.

That may explain why I believe that for any given time frame, there are only two or three really good trading opportunities. For example, if you're a long-term trader, there are typically only two or three compelling tradable moves in a market during any given year. Similarly, if you are a short-term trader, there are only two or three high-quality trade setups in a given week.

All too often, because trading is inherently exciting (and anything involving money usually is exciting), it's easy to feel like you're missing the party if you don't trade a lot. As a result, you start taking trade setups of lesser and lesser quality and begin to over-trade.

How do you overcome this lack of patience? The advice I have found to be most valuable is to remind yourself that every week, there is another trade-of-the-year. In other words, don't worry about missing an opportunity today, because there will be another one tomorrow, next week and next month...I promise.

I remember a line from a movie (either Sergeant York with Gary Cooper or The Patriot with Mel Gibson) in which one character gives advice to another on how to shoot a rifle: "Aim small, miss small." I offer the same advice in this new context. To aim small requires patience. So be patient, and you'll miss small.

Fatal Flaw No. 5 -- Lack of Money Management

The final fatal flaw to overcome as a trader is a Lack of Money Management, and this topic deserves more than just a few paragraphs, because money management encompasses risk/reward analysis, probability of success and failure, protective stops and so much more. Even so, I would like to address the subject of money management with a focus on risk as a function of portfolio size.

Now the big boys (i.e., the professional traders) tend to limit their risk on any given position to 1% - 3% of their portfolio. If we apply this rule to ourselves, then for every $5,000 we have in our trading account, we can risk only $50 - $150 on any given trade. Stocks might be a little different, but a $50 stop in Corn, which is one point, is simply too tight a stop, especially when the 10-day average trading range in Corn recently has been more than 10 points. A more plausible stop might be five points or 10, in which case, depending on what percentage of your total portfolio you want to risk, you would need an account size between $15,000 and $50,000.

Simply put, I believe that many traders begin to trade either under-funded or without sufficient capital in their trading account to trade the markets they choose to trade. And that doesn't even address the size that they trade (i.e., multiple contracts).

To overcome this fatal flaw, let me expand on the logic from the "aim small, miss small" movie line. If you have a small trading account, then trade small. You can accomplish this by trading fewer contracts, or trading e-mini contracts or even stocks. Bottom line, on your way to becoming a consistently successful trader, you must realize that one key is longevity. If your risk on any given position is relatively small, then you can weather the rough spots. Conversely, if you risk 25% of your portfolio on each trade, after four consecutive losers, you're out all together.

Break the Hand's Grip

Trading successfully is not easy. It's hard work...damn hard. And if anyone leads you to believe otherwise, run the other way, and fast. But this hard work can be rewarding, above-average gains are possible and the sense of satisfaction one feels after a few nice trades is absolutely priceless. To get to that point, though, you must first break the fingers of the Hand that is holding you back and stealing money from your trading account. I can guarantee that if you attend to the five fatal flaws I've outlined, you won't be caught red-handed stealing from your own account.

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Get 14 Critical Lessons Every Trader Should Know Learn about managing your emotions, developing your trading methodology, and the importance of discipline in your trading decisions in The Best of Trader's Classroom, a FREE 45-page eBook from Elliott Wave International. Since 1999, Jeffrey Kennedy has produced dozens of Trader's Classroom lessons exclusively for his subscribers. Now you can get "the best of the best" in these 14 lessons that offer the most critical information every trader should know. Find out why traders fail, the three phases of a trader's education, and how to make yourself a better trader with lessons on the Wave Principle, bar patterns, Fibonacci sequences, and more! Don't miss your chance to improve your trading. Download your FREE eBook today!

FOREX BREAK ALMOST OVER

Over the years, I have made it a standard practice. I will stop trading from Christmas till Chinese New Year. These are the period that the market will not move or move very little. During these times, whenever anybody ask me my post in forex, I will give the freak out look on my face.

Just opened up my forex chart to look around. As usual, its not a pretty sight. So sit tight and enjoy the break while you still can. Forex calendar 2012 starts after CNY. Happy holidays everyone.

The European Debt Crisis and Your Investments

The European Debt Crisis and Your Investments

A look back on 18 months of analysis and reports on the European Credit Crisis
January 10, 2012

By Elliott Wave International

In 1999, 11 European countries surrendered their currencies for the euro and a shared monetary authority. Barely a decade later, the once-celebrated EU is in the midst of a credit crisis and its currency is facing collapse.

Elliott Wave International's analysts have been anticipating and tracking the credit contagion across the European nations for the past two years. EWI subscribers were first alerted to the still-developing European debt crisis back in December 2009.

The following is excerpted from a December 2010 report from The European Debt Crisis, a new report from EWI. This free report provides important analysis from February 2010 through today that helps you understand what the European economic crisis can mean for your investments. Plus, you'll get a unique perspective on what's ahead. Find out how to access this free report below.

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The Credit Crisis Spreads -- December 2010

The credit crisis is escalating as expected. Back in January 2010, when ratings agency Moody's bestowed "investment grade" status on a widely followed index of sovereign bonds, The European Financial Forecast argued that a renewed Primary-degree decline would in fact aim the credit crisis directly at this critical new realm.

Our case for the looming sovereign debt debacle rested primarily on two pieces of evidence: (1) Primary wave 3 (circled) had begun in Europe's peripheral markets, and (2) premiums for credit-default swaps on European sovereigns (think of an insurance policy against a national default) were already signaling the next phase of the crisis by surpassing their 2008-09 price extremes.

The February 2010 issue of EFF published a chart showing rising Greek, Spanish and Italian swaps and offered this description of how Europe's credit crunch would escalate: "The theme during Primary wave 1 (circled) was default at the individual, corporate and quasi-government level. The theme for Primary wave 3 (circled) will be default at the sovereign level."

Today, the credit crunch is clearly angling itself away from mere corporations and toward whole countries. On November 15, Bloomberg announced the escalation with this headline:

Companies Safer Than Sovereigns as
Crisis Cracks 'Old Order'
-- Bloomberg, November 15, 2010

London credit strategist Greg Venizelos tells Bloomberg that the "old order" was the one where investors believed large sovereign nations to be better credit risks than corporate borrowers.

However, debt is being repriced, he says, and today "corporates are now better credit quality than sovereigns in the periphery." Indeed, swaps on Italian government bonds are more expensive than 75% of the Italian companies contained in the iTraxx Europe Index of European corporations. In Spain, traders deem Spanish sovereign debt to be riskier than all six Spanish companies in the index.

Even in the supposedly safe core European country of France, 5-year swaps tied to French government bonds climbed to an all-time high of 105 basis points in November. At that level, more than half of the 25 French companies in the iTraxx index trade tighter than the French sovereign, according to Bloomberg.

The chart above shows another way to view the escalation of the credit crisis. By plotting the difference, or "spread," between swaps on European corporations versus those on European sovereigns, the rising line shows derivative traders' increasing fear over sovereign default relative to corporate borrowers.

So, yes, the old order of safer sovereigns is over. But notice, too, that the debt crisis began escalating when the continent's peripheral markets started topping way back in October 2009. The billion-euro question is, "Who is next?" The media is clearly focusing on Portugal, as 5-year credit default swaps tied to Portuguese bonds are setting all-time records. But charts show that so too are swaps tied to Spanish and Italian bonds.

Five-year swaps on Belgian debt also reached an all-time high last month. Either one of these countries could be next. Maybe they'll all go down together, but in the larger scheme of things, it doesn't matter. The most important thing to observe is that even core European countries like France and Germany exhibit spiking default insurance premiums, too. These countries are the largest contributors to the �440 billion Facility, the same one that backstops the rest of Europe.

The June 2010 European Financial Forecast said unequivocally that before the storm is over, "at least one, but more likely several, G8 nations will capsize." We stand by our forecast.

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How DEEP Will Cuts in Government Services Go?

How DEEP Will Cuts in Government Services Go?
Plus: The check is STILL in the mail. 
January 9, 2012

By Elliott Wave International

"Localities have chopped 535,000 positions since September 2008..."
USA Today (10/18)

Cuts in government services became conspicuous after the 2007-2009 financial crisis.

The first edition of Robert Prechter's Conquer the Crash saw this coming, even though the book published nearly a decade ago:

"Don't expect government services to remain at their current levels...The tax receipts that pay for roads, police and jails, fire departments, trash pickup, emergency (911) monitoring, water systems and so on will fall to such low levels that services will be restricted." (p. 257)

Households throughout Massachusetts know exactly what Prechter is talking about.

In a boston.com article (12/7), the president of the Massachusetts Taxpayers Association said this about the state's municipalities: "Revenues have been virtually flat, while their costs have grown, which has meant cuts in schools, public safety, and other basic services for most cities and towns.’’

The same article reports that "Worcester has cut about 450 municipal jobs, including approximately 60 police officers, 60 firefighters, and 100 public works employees..."

Detroit's WWJ-TV reports (12/6) "Budget deficits and declining personnel are the major forces behind the Detroit Police Department’s decision to end free funeral escorts."

November 9 saw the biggest municipal bankruptcy in U.S. history, when officials in Jefferson County, Alabama voted to file for Chapter 9. Reuters said the county's debt exceeded $5 billion; Jefferson County is home to Birmingham, the state's biggest city and economic hub.

Financial troubles are also leading to federal cut backs. The U.S. Postal Service has decided to close about half of its 487 mail processing centers:

"The post office had bad news on Monday for all those who like to pop a check into the mail to pay a bill due the next day: don’t count on it.
"The United States Postal Service said it planned to largely eliminate next-day delivery for first-class mail as part of its push to cut costs and reduce its budget deficit. Currently, more than 40 percent of first-class mail is delivered in one day."

New York Times (12/5)

The pace of the deteriorating economic trend appears to be accelerating. Our analysis suggests that it's part of a larger deflationary trend that has a long way to go.

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Why Choose the Wave Principle?

Why Choose the Wave Principle?
Robert Prechter reveals why he embraced the Wave Principle. 
January 4, 2012

By Elliott Wave International

Robert Prechter is the widely recognized authority on the Elliott Wave Principle.

Read how he learned about the Wave Principle and why he embraced it in the edited excerpt from his book Prechter's Perspective below (Q&A format):

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Question: What was it about Elliott that captured your attention?
Robert Prechter: I had seen some mentions of the Wave Principle in a few market newsletters and a couple of obscure books, and I decided that either this was someone's elaborate fantasy or it was an amazing discovery. I wanted to reject it from what evidence I could find or include it as part of my growing arsenal of technical analytical methods.
Q: How long did it take you to develop your "eye" for discerning these waves?

RP: About 30 minutes -- when I plotted my first hourly chart covering a few months. Apparently, there is such a thing as an eye for patterns. One person told me he had trouble finding the fives and threes. The key is to keep a chart. Most people have no trouble seeing the Principle at work.
Q: You accepted it just like that?
RP: When you begin to see the five-wave impulses and the three-wave corrections unfold over and over, it does not take long for you to say either "I see, but I refuse to believe it," or "This is obviously what's happening; let's see how far it continues." It took about a year and a half of applying it until I knew that Elliott was absolutely right. I'm pretty hard-headed, and it takes substantial reason for me to accept a new idea. By that time, I decided I had seen what amounted to proof. I then said to myself, "This is unbelievable. How come no one is commenting on this? The market is pulling back to points he said it should pull back to in the patterns. It is rising up to levels he said it should, in ways he said it should."
Q: What was it that convinced you?
RP: The Wave Principle proves itself when you merely keep a chart. Once I did that, I recognized what was going on rather quickly. The wave patterns are repetitive and at times, over protracted periods, they are easily discernible.

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The basic Elliott wave pattern consists of impulsive waves (denoted by numbers) and corrective waves (denoted by letters). An impulsive wave is composed of five subwaves and moves in the same direction as the trend of the next larger size. A corrective wave consists of three subwaves and moves against the trend of the next larger size.

As the chart below shows, these basic patterns link to form five- and three-wave structures of increasingly larger size.

The Elliott Wave Principle helps to identify turning points in the trends of financial markets.

It does not provide certainty, yet the Wave Principle does provide a way to assess the probabilities of possible future paths of a given financial market.

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